Temporal UDE
6-DOF physics plus a neural residual that sees the last second of flight.
Results
Forecasts against the measured flight
Pick a flight and a horizon, then step through the paper's held-out forecasts. At the start of each window the models were given the measured state and 1.07 s of history, then only the recorded pilot sticks.
Instantaneous UDE
The same residual, from the current state only.
ARX
A linear data-driven baseline with lagged sticks.
OEM
Classical output-error fit of the physics. No network.
Roll
Pitch
Throttle
Yaw
fitdevelopment
held-out testnot used
The score is the RMS error over roll, pitch, the three body rates and speed, each divided by a fixed scale. Lower is better.